TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under34c10,165$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.293,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over56c8,000$4,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.8433244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under45c6,466$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Under38c4,999$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over62c4,229$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.86762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…6768backed Under34c3,161$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over64c2,468$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.4810361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over63c1,854$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.0710154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd3…74d4backed Under46c1,298$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+110.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Under14c1,193$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.997722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over63c1,165$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.0517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under30c1,095$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.162,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over56c895.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.935246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b22…a210backed Over56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under37c810.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.065145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under24c684.4$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1919139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under37c674.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Under40c559.35$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under38c508.49$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.351,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over62c412.9$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.918759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under22c397.72$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6481732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over77c354.73$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.597867.9%53 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over57c341.14$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1410863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under38c318$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12034655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over61c299.55$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8235856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over63c271.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.672560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af3…fbe3backed Over55c266$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.71729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under25c243.48$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0353140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under25c242.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.911,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Over62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.94850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under37c237.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over60c199.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under46c195.39$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9321540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under15c186$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.922245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under27c168.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8750…0841backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.735466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7312069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Over62c148.39$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.396845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Over53c137.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.842185.7%18 W · 3 L+6.7wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3080…f041backed Over63c135.24$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under10c118$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Under43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Under41c111$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.515030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Under38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3926…5863backed Under45c100.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395162.7%32 W · 19 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9db…dd44backed Over63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375855.2%32 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Over63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373b…1107backed Over64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7722157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under20c96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.859742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over63c92.83$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.352462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c84…b320backed Under15c92.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd5…9e49backed Under40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Over74c75.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.595364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over55c69.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.091050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under37c59.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.241,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3914758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1222562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under40c38.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.486659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf076…5a0abacked Under39c37.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over65c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.954273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7a57…9ac1backed Under41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over63c36.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.514269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8faf…2575backed Under39c35.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under29c35.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f33…0d47backed Over56c34.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151978.9%15 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.33per pick46cpaid+74.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7912843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1b9…8714backed Over63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9c…b478backed Over63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec2f…c407backed Under38c31.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under39c29.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6312157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19cf…5636backed Over62c29.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.16825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x254e…23dfbacked Over62c28.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc271…1bfdbacked Over64c28.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.241566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e0…07debacked Under39c27.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Under46c27.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52050%10 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over64c27.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7310552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a5…afc0backed Over62c25.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under40c25.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.289658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedf…71f3backed Over62c25.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over64c25.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9730647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7d2…f555backed Under40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc891…cf27backed Over62c23.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9e…46ebbacked Over62c21.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c63…4e93backed Over63c19.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over63c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0318545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f57…770ebacked Over62c17.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0477…4985backed Over64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.