Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec825f9e80cd883d8a1530f74c87f1a53c54a46fb7eb5e11beca2e32ba107d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 17c | 2,059$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 17c | 1,978$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 15c | 1,336$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 1,065$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 12c | 1,029$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 518.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 349.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 215.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 17c | 134.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 16c | 132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Over | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Over | 80c | 56.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…9ac1backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…3d2dbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 79c | 28.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.