TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6366…8c41

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
300
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ligue 1, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ligue 1 at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT22324.2%54 W · 169 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 223 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
France vs. England: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. England: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: England (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$505.56
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$48.7
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$121.29
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+102%+$204.04
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 223 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$233
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$177.66
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.13
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.48
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.89
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$163.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$86.18
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$216.57
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$310.49
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+85.2%+$170.37
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+40.8%+$40.85
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick63cpaid-75.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+62.6%+$37.57
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+67%+$33.48
All 3 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+420.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$382.94
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$36.21
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+43.3%+$86.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$569.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+66.7%+$66.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Morgan State Bears vs. South Carolina State Bulldogsbacked Morgan State Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$25.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Solary vs Galions Sharks (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffsbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+26.6%+$13.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.