Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cdfff529e4ad6b0ec919f123f2c925a5b4a929a3573ce59a81a06bbaf8d32c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 527.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 384.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 10c | 314.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 282.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 63c | 157.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…65f5backed Yes | 74c | 135.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 106.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes | 47c | 106.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 50c | 90.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 33c | 89.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 89.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 38c | 81.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 75c | 59.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 30c | 58.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…21debacked No | 79c | 55.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 50.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 47.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 43.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 40.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 75c | 36.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…e116backed Yes | 31c | 35.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 34.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 75c | 32.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…3f6abacked No | 44c | 29.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…9856backed No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…cf22backed Yes | 37c | 27.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +119%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed No | 42c | 23.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…64d5backed Yes | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…267dbacked No | 61c | 16.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 64c | 15.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…e8afbacked No | 74c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.