Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0b09a9f582de9cc7cac785323bfdcd6783d9ca226f1a3ef9d2ec2490c63638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 59c | 650.49$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.61 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 46c | 526.42$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…3f6abacked No | 3c | 481.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked Yes | 37c | 262$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.87 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 229.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…a0b0backed No | 5c | 203.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…0b02backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 18c | 178.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed No | 78c | 127.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 56c | 110.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 25c | 104.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…0f40backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed Yes | 25c | 80.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 73.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 75c | 67.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 41c | 65.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 36c | 56.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 35c | 54.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 47.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed Yes | 62c | 35.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 43c | 32.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 63c | 31.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 38c | 29.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 63c | 28.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 38c | 26.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.