Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e81c56a0b1b5db91f141ffa22d80f989830ec423f21c14b14f508614a303c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 0c | 11,395$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…9762backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed No | 73c | 3,149$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.38 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,949$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 49c | 1,717$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.27 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 449.79$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 20c | 344.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 243.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 20c | 236$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 58c | 156.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 60c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 149.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 149.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 41c | 122.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 39c | 108.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 27c | 101.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…0b02backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed No | 75c | 99.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 29c | 96.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed Yes | 39c | 77.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 73.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 27c | 67.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 25c | 66.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 63c | 63.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 57.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 54.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 52.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 74c | 47.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 80c | 46.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 45.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 44.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 60c | 41.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 52c | 41.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 58c | 38.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 37.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 32c | 37.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23af…22dcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…4212backed Yes | 41c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 16.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.