Europa Conference League · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1f42fff16f672dcd27a4e7b41996c13aa61ffd80774adbe6a8f9d87cc59c99c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 57c | 12,856$7,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,587.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 11,996$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked Over | 31c | 3,201$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 2,536$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.16 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…9525backed Under | 79c | 2,265$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 44c | 1,861$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 13c | 1,750$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.61 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 50c | 999.92$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 18c | 835.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 669.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 40c | 483.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 37c | 463.65$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 434.75$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 6c | 270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 69c | 241$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 70c | 232.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…7c2ebacked Under | 70c | 220.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 31c | 192$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 27c | 183.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 172.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 57c | 147.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 30c | 138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 27c | 130.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 68c | 106.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 28c | 101.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 29c | 87.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…8a1bbacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 27c | 59.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 73c | 58.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 71c | 57.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 45.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 29c | 38.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Under | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 70c | 30.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 59c | 30.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…1378backed Under | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…db68backed Under | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: Celtic FC (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)Celtic FC won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)Celtic FC won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.