TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celtic FCof VfB Stuttgart, Celtic FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,849 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Celtic FC49c57,149$27,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,153.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef1…b61ebacked Celtic FC48c35,749$17,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,589.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216c…d1f5backed VfB Stuttgart52c35,700$18,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,56410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8292…3389backed Celtic FC48c24,911$11,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,953.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed VfB Stuttgart52c22,521$11,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,711.091030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Celtic FC48c21,366$10,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,039.11643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6362…9624backed VfB Stuttgart52c19,200$9,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,98410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed VfB Stuttgart51c15,327$7,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,816.771947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Celtic FC49c14,666$7,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,479.75259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked VfB Stuttgart51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked VfB Stuttgart51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10015947.8%76 W · 83 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart50c9,562$4,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.943,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtic FC51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+100.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x980d…7763backed VfB Stuttgart51c7,928$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtic FC49c7,058$3,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575.338247.1%180 W · 202 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea3…72c8backed VfB Stuttgart51c6,178$3,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,150.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed VfB Stuttgart52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed VfB Stuttgart51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked VfB Stuttgart51c3,336$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.5213149.6%65 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtic FC52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4403145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked VfB Stuttgart51c2,962$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5202236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked VfB Stuttgart48c2,705$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.572050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Celtic FC48c2,419$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+46.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed VfB Stuttgart52c2,350$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2221637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfB Stuttgart51c2,141$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.0591950.9%468 W · 451 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed VfB Stuttgart52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed VfB Stuttgart51c1,888$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Celtic FC71c1,455$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.32867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Celtic FC49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.414548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Celtic FC49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5108345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked VfB Stuttgart24c749.35$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.462,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed VfB Stuttgart29c732.43$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.452243.9%229 W · 293 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed VfB Stuttgart51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25518049.4%89 W · 91 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked VfB Stuttgart48c494.16$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.627753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed VfB Stuttgart24c457.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.888639.5%34 W · 52 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…4107backed VfB Stuttgart50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b22…a210backed Celtic FC51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed VfB Stuttgart51c372.55$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19011536.5%42 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked VfB Stuttgart9c364.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.543132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f0…790cbacked VfB Stuttgart14c328.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed VfB Stuttgart51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Celtic FC52c282.08$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.484850.8%431 W · 417 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked VfB Stuttgart28c237.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.923360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked VfB Stuttgart51c237.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.270239.3%276 W · 426 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed VfB Stuttgart51c221.68$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.46056.7%34 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed VfB Stuttgart50c212.68$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.344663%29 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb72…2514backed Celtic FC50c203.55$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Celtic FC50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7ce…83acbacked Celtic FC48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+104.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked VfB Stuttgart51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed VfB Stuttgart51c189.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.692,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed VfB Stuttgart49c175.05$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7755545.8%254 W · 301 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed VfB Stuttgart15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514733.3%49 W · 98 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed VfB Stuttgart41c161.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665042%21 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Celtic FC69c160.41$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.946556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Celtic FC51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.57850%39 W · 39 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked VfB Stuttgart51c147.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.428355.4%46 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed VfB Stuttgart49c145$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.053633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0696…ee1bbacked VfB Stuttgart29c134.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Celtic FC61c119.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.925248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked VfB Stuttgart52c111.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.244052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Celtic FC49c108$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5714756.5%83 W · 64 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed VfB Stuttgart49c101.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed VfB Stuttgart50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1933349.8%166 W · 167 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked VfB Stuttgart52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506844.1%30 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed VfB Stuttgart50c85.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8210953.2%58 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Celtic FC49c84.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Celtic FC49c82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8215846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed VfB Stuttgart26c72.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7516013.1%21 W · 139 L-18.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb9c…5a62backed VfB Stuttgart50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Celtic FC72c69.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.68785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…11ddbacked VfB Stuttgart53c66.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Celtic FC48c62.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.762254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ea…1ff9backed Celtic FC49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x820e…9db7backed VfB Stuttgart50c52.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f8…31e9backed VfB Stuttgart53c52.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed VfB Stuttgart50c51.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Celtic FC50c51.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfc4…3b29backed VfB Stuttgart50c50.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed VfB Stuttgart52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked VfB Stuttgart51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259338.7%36 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed VfB Stuttgart51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe43c…ccd5backed VfB Stuttgart50c48.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc036…7df5backed VfB Stuttgart52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed VfB Stuttgart52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed VfB Stuttgart50c43.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9217956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60a0…da0dbacked VfB Stuttgart49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Celtic FC49c40.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.696344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1715…dbe9backed Celtic FC50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2062…6be2backed Celtic FC51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe856…4711backed VfB Stuttgart48c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Celtic FC73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.252657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Celtic FC51c33.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.423946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0568…d5a7backed Celtic FC53c30.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3566…7f55backed Celtic FC49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked VfB Stuttgart48c24.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.832948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked VfB Stuttgart50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Celtic FC49c22.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Celtic FC51c20.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.193148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked VfB Stuttgart49c20.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.191145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.