Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b56a018a42e290591f7cffe282e214ca140c401e41de67665a8dda11a53d03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 20c | 500.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 73c | 384.3$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 10c | 305.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 71c | 298.56$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 277.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 10c | 255$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 32c | 245.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…dfddbacked No | 43c | 197$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 79c | 195.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 172.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 22c | 168.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 138.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 60c | 125.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 36c | 101.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 60c | 97.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 40c | 94.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed Yes | 68c | 86.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 61c | 82.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 41c | 82.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 81.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 73.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 54c | 49.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 26c | 49.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 72c | 47.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 39.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed Yes | 44c | 38.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 36.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 80c | 30.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…0e1cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…9f81backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 71c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.