Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d58fafc4077a8ae5b62e691a1649c126127888cc82b5c4dd9674645969ddc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 403.3$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 346.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 25c | 267.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 41c | 219.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 211.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 190.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 160$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 159.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 120.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 35c | 119.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked No | 64c | 113.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 106.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 99.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 96.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 84.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 83.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 18c | 82.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…04edbacked Yes | 37c | 70.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…b89bbacked Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 78c | 57.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 52.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 39c | 51.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 66c | 49.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 27c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 37c | 40.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 71c | 40.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 37.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes | 30c | 35.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3e…6319backed Yes | 51c | 33.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 64c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.