TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Aurora, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$525,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$610,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $525,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid51c47,194$24,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,190.9655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora43c32,604$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora48c19,951$9,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,485.3933746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Team Liquid51c19,600$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,603.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora42c16,033$6,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,696.3596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid55c14,372$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,441.7932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid51c13,397$6,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,550.1845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora47c11,406$5,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,347.8522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Liquid59c8,823$5,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600.887143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed Aurora49c8,750$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Aurora48c8,180$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,926.49636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Aurora49c8,080$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Aurora22c8,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Aurora49c7,495$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.4627645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid58c7,420$4,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.9977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38c…1128backed Aurora61c6,612$4,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,024.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Liquid62c6,273$3,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.3910741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Aurora37c6,262$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.3214121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Liquid52c5,993$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.8416248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Liquid60c5,737$3,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.6715047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Liquid53c5,734$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.8433850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid60c5,614$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.7186949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Aurora48c5,293$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.459750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Aurora40c5,078$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04915946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.999557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid51c4,881$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.6880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Aurora44c4,542$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.4537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…6e27backed Team Liquid55c4,523$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Aurora49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20515457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Aurora11c4,110$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.579223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c68…0df1backed Aurora51c3,951$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Liquid52c3,692$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.496650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora50c3,629$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.182,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Aurora42c3,601$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.572161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Liquid53c3,547$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.0719147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Team Liquid71c3,519$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.086566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Aurora49c3,509$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.3111839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Liquid52c3,310$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.68447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora46c3,200$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9935758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Liquid47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.549959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora48c3,184$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.3364744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Liquid74c3,039$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.0122848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Aurora12c3,012$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1919242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked Aurora48c3,009$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.153834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Liquid76c2,905$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.215642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Team Liquid51c2,864$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.376256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…5baebacked Team Liquid77c2,643$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Team Liquid44c2,500$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.871963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora59c2,455$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.2879959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team Liquid51c2,357$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.8328145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Aurora49c2,347$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1503250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Liquid58c2,150$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.4521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Aurora47c2,135$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora48c2,077$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.412,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…dbe6backed Aurora2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405151%26 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Team Liquid51c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9909345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Liquid49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9914648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Liquid52c1,900$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9126535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Aurora42c1,899$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4815452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Team Liquid54c1,745$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.292853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Aurora4c1,712$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6713946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Liquid54c1,709$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.5442145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid76c1,694$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.593043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Liquid69c1,678$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4316232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid54c1,671$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.0580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora50c1,630$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81521346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Aurora46c1,628$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.653336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora22c1,570$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.561,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Aurora47c1,550$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.865964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Team Liquid54c1,523$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.271650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Team Liquid50c1,518$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.725839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Aurora49c1,515$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.9312454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Aurora45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67522727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid75c1,500$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Aurora50c1,333$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.662250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Liquid54c1,231$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.319552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Aurora51c1,184$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Aurora50c1,139$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.936243.5%27 W · 35 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Liquid50c1,102$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.0619943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Aurora49c1,102$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.855234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Aurora45c1,100$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.171947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Aurora48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Aurora48c1,092$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.659651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Team Liquid61c1,080$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.695552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Aurora38c1,077$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Liquid47c1,072$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.198957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Aurora47c1,051$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.976647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora5c1,050$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Aurora48c1,049$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Team Liquid50c1,000$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5052334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26053757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid74c993.02$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.1985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Team Liquid50c988.77$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.391060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Liquid51c987.24$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.7557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Team Liquid51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Team Liquid51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.398164.2%52 W · 29 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c8a…d6b2backed Team Liquid51c952.75$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid51c948.8$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.8560542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.