TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,651 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid54c56,430$30,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,283.4255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora48c18,212$8,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,379.3333746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora48c10,998$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,747.5754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Aurora49c10,167$4,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,193.393250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora46c9,060$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,860.4996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora36c6,671$2,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.052,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Liquid50c6,129$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.59636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid61c5,060$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.5934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Aurora47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6506256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Team Liquid53c4,727$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Liquid54c4,480$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.7810741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Liquid66c4,044$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,669.827143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora47c3,293$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Liquid58c3,244$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.3415047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed Aurora49c3,241$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Liquid52c3,238$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.7619147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Team Liquid62c2,733$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora49c2,635$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.6577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora42c2,600$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50835758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Liquid53c2,515$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3259959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41cc…adc7backed Aurora37c2,439$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.154045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid53c2,255$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.721,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Liquid52c1,827$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9505642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora59c1,689$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.7921264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora35c1,644$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.448461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Liquid68c1,561$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.3366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Team Liquid52c1,540$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.071020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora30c1,501$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.5892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Aurora49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.85839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora47c1,488$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.568060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Liquid58c1,484$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.7211043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora46c1,450$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.8579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Liquid78c1,412$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.65757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Liquid51c1,376$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9916248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Team Liquid14c1,352$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.322055%11 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Aurora46c1,302$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.4715452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Team Liquid54c1,282$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.375935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Aurora47c1,212$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.335251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora32c1,196$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.2231245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora51c1,172$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.878957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid56c1,168$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.991,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Aurora41c1,165$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.6677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Aurora44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.165964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Team Liquid6c1,011$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid58c1,006$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.031,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Aurora50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Aurora40c981.46$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.5916232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Aurora48c886.95$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.953941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked Aurora43c871.61$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.573638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Aurora46c869.57$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.5725457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora47c839.75$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.0731545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora51c815.69$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.6921346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora48c790.24$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.8255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid51c780$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.83043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Liquid53c700$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37036054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid50c684.99$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Aurora58c684.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.959053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora31c659.5$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45233645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora47c623.4$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.445061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Liquid50c608$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30414648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid53c599.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Liquid51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora45c581.2$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9613455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora45c554.74$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.4955457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Aurora50c540.39$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.265234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora51c500$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27085851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e0…0d61backed Team Liquid21c499.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora50c496.79$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid50c495.02$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora47c492.89$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.8972154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a5…caa6backed Aurora46c478$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.124841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora43c466.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.058854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Team Liquid68c455.35$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.648833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora7c435.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.1771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team Liquid51c428.75$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora36c419.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.2957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed Aurora30c405$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Aurora30c399.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28025639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked Aurora50c374$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1876735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Team Liquid56c360$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.021963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Aurora45c355$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0148352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid50c338.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora44c335$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.26454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Aurora19c332.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.085549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora60c324.33$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7341655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Aurora49c304.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.459254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora15c300$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25559250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cec…4134backed Aurora41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.53548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Team Liquid10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora32c299$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Team Liquid38c261.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked Team Liquid64c261.18$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3836761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Liquid59c231.37$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4919246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Aurora42c223.01$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4321851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0a…64f2backed Aurora41c222.62$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Aurora42c217.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9150757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2911…2a0dbacked Team Liquid39c215.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.