TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Team Liquid, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$393,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION36c85,362$30,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,889.7428748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Liquid63c61,614$38,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,810.7142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed PARIVISION36c21,192$7,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,615.7315047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid59c12,126$7,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,203.855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid68c11,809$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid67c11,111$7,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,444.3632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Liquid63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION38c8,781$3,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.2996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION15c8,496$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.0865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION38c8,483$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,234.351,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Team Liquid66c7,900$5,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,210.163154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed PARIVISION30c7,039$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed PARIVISION29c6,778$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,818.287143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION23c6,675$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,121.882,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed PARIVISION32c6,125$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,184.3810741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION36c5,873$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,745.9986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Liquid65c5,348$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.5513045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Liquid66c5,101$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.8613455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed PARIVISION49c5,036$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.4821264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4009557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Liquid66c4,948$3,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,271.119147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed PARIVISION12c4,171$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,670.713250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked PARIVISION31c3,192$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.3560542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…030abacked Team Liquid67c2,862$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION39c2,770$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.4435758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked PARIVISION19c2,379$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.3133845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid51c2,192$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.0880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION37c2,127$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.5225549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Team Liquid2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed PARIVISION33c1,803$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.439345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Liquid49c1,775$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.7666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid71c1,604$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.981,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Team Liquid43c1,534$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.42751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Liquid66c1,511$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked PARIVISION45c1,448$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.518060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked PARIVISION32c1,406$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.255642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed PARIVISION65c1,379$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.0315946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION35c1,307$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.5355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked PARIVISION39c1,209$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.1660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed PARIVISION35c1,152$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.621346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid66c1,100$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73188166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION29c1,048$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.992,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed PARIVISION62c1,046$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.5645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed PARIVISION13c1,000$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8707846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed PARIVISION32c999.95$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.91872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+55.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Liquid63c914$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.967447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid58c896$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Liquid68c875.59$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Team Liquid71c845.07$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION19c812.77$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.4992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked PARIVISION51c809.89$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.089051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e0…0d61backed Team Liquid20c807.68$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.541520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid68c778.72$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.215964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed PARIVISION15c756.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.236547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked PARIVISION25c739.36$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.523638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed PARIVISION33c734.93$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.887424.3%18 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Team Liquid67c700$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46911647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Liquid72c691.36$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed PARIVISION33c680$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.628549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid68c670.63$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6920156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION19c654.84$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.7177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Liquid42c630.54$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6326661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Team Liquid65c629.96$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.541442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION10c624.24$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.0333645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Liquid4c621.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.486132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x910a…9e92backed Team Liquid65c620.62$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.42045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid70c614.42$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.663043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Liquid66c612.24$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.0823459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…ea16backed Team Liquid67c603.06$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Team Liquid76c570.9$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.436454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Team Liquid69c529.88$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.621030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION16c515.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.6379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Liquid64c512.5$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32617353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Team Liquid63c499.98$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.345052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed PARIVISION38c496.23$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.1819664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed PARIVISION59c489.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.928650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked PARIVISION37c486.91$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.914252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked PARIVISION50c467.92$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.969245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION32c451.33$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.052,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd9…a1dcbacked Team Liquid38c451.03$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed PARIVISION45c449.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.928244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION33c443.36$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.641,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x216b…d5e6backed Team Liquid62c440$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed PARIVISION51c438.9$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.911845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cd…4dd1backed Team Liquid78c438.71$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.192556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b66…68b8backed Team Liquid65c430.77$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION12c416.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24853757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4867…e1dcbacked Team Liquid50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed PARIVISION12c397.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9418444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid52c350$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.259430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75a7…6e27backed Team Liquid31c342$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.82757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Team Liquid65c330.17$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.38432.1%27 W · 57 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed PARIVISION33c322.71$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed Team Liquid50c304.12$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.571560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6366…8c41backed Team Liquid66c303.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7307…7d23backed Team Liquid64c302.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3740%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed PARIVISION14c300$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0687645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Liquid68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20414058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.