Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1fd2fdbcd145b293506513ea476a823573416c1c8e2ff5989b769d21e5760a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof Team Liquid, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION | 50c | 943.52$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.58 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Liquid | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed PARIVISION | 57c | 273.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION | 58c | 227.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 218.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed PARIVISION | 53c | 218.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Team Liquid | 55c | 213.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Liquid | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Team Liquid | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked PARIVISION | 42c | 170$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 164.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…58efbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 152.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed PARIVISION | 41c | 131.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Team Liquid | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Team Liquid | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…5922backed Team Liquid | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Team Liquid | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed PARIVISION | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed PARIVISION | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Liquid | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Liquid | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Team Liquid | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 40.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…6fbbbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed PARIVISION | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed PARIVISION | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.