Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78abc5ce1901f99602011a764c2b970fd385ff42fce5062fb4e1e9389ea5eb26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 11c | 8,102$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 13c | 6,938$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.93 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 16c | 5,157$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Under | 77c | 3,267$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 32c | 2,983$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 2,205$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 30c | 1,678$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 71c | 1,579$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 12c | 1,548$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 13c | 1,515$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 11c | 1,514$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 29c | 1,450$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.5 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 14c | 1,371$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 16c | 1,033$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…8887backed Under | 80c | 1,024$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 13c | 1,023$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 13c | 938.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 8c | 887.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Over | 19c | 719$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 13c | 677$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 13c | 504.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 20cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…798fbacked Under | 74c | 432.49$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a0…1783backed Over | 16c | 398.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 370.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 80c | 363.08$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Over | 14c | 353.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 13c | 341$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 18c | 332.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Over | 16c | 310.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…56f6backed Over | 16c | 306.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…44e9backed Over | 24c | 286.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 4c | 244.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…bb24backed Over | 19c | 234.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 9c | 217.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 76c | 185.35$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Over | 27c | 175.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 20c | 168.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 73c | 164.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked Over | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…0f57backed Over | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…20e7backed Over | 32c | 156.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…3003backed Under | 78c | 149.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 17c | 142.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked Under | 73c | 142.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 29c | 138.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 75c | 135.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Under | 80c | 125.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 70c | 121.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed Under | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Over | 23c | 76.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…f695backed Over | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Under | 74c | 67.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…a2dfbacked Over | 28c | 65.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…2cacbacked Under | 79c | 50.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 78c | 50.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Over | 36c | 46.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…086dbacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…5782backed Under | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.