Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5547e8a071b7d0a36f9a24e5764af0687fc93661083014b0c6e754d21c7c0aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villa FCof Aston Villa FC, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 8,237$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,822.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +165%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 67c | 4,854$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,233.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed SC Freiburg | 40c | 1,969$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Aston Villa FC | 14c | 1,774$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.56 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Aston Villa FC | 66c | 1,135$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.26 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 1,084$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.4 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed SC Freiburg | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 79c | 760.02$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.34 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SC Freiburg | 62c | 616.17$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.65 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Aston Villa FC | 10c | 500$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 20cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed SC Freiburg | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Aston Villa FC | 14c | 399.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aston Villa FC | 75c | 389.92$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Aston Villa FC | 14c | 357$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked SC Freiburg | 20c | 339.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Aston Villa FC | 43c | 230.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 199.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed SC Freiburg | 57c | 173.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Aston Villa FC | 43c | 112.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb84…0ac8backed Aston Villa FC | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Aston Villa FC | 45c | 108.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked SC Freiburg | 21c | 99.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…f695backed Aston Villa FC | 44c | 97.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…a2dfbacked Aston Villa FC | 44c | 91.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…b39ebacked SC Freiburg | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 78.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e0…fe5dbacked SC Freiburg | 41c | 50.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…61a9backed SC Freiburg | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Aston Villa FC | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a443backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 29.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed SC Freiburg | 59c | 25.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed SC Freiburg | 52c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed SC Freiburg | 68c | 20.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.