Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccc366cfa96cb5d7b1071bee729734dd05c7aa7a71ba11ac6d190a54b4cfb63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 28,634$3,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.64 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 7c | 11,238$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.36 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 7c | 7,348$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.76 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 7c | 1,939$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 7c | 1,544$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 7c | 1,062$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 15c | 959.49$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 7c | 774.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 8c | 772.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 479.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 13c | 264.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 8c | 237.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 8c | 174$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 7c | 153.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 8c | 126.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 17c | 114.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 14c | 95.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 16c | 91.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 15c | 86.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Over | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.