Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d77a836fb817bbd7290325f06a24b7fa2e9c62d226a652ad02bf1cb53639f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 3c | 40,511$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.29 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 13,340$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.62 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 5c | 5,440$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 3,108$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…68e5backed Over | 5c | 2,430$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 6c | 1,831$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…849bbacked Over | 6c | 1,605$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 6c | 1,498$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 5c | 1,434$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 6c | 1,283$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 6c | 1,090$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 20cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Over | 9c | 1,083$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…b9febacked Over | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 6c | 976.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 5c | 770$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 5c | 754.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 5c | 460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 4c | 420.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 7c | 395$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 5c | 367.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 6c | 320.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 6c | 316.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 4c | 289.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 6c | 242.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 5c | 242.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 5c | 242.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 6c | 241.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 5c | 221.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…b130backed Over | 6c | 195.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.