TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x128e…56f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cary: Rei Sakamoto vs Jules Lerouxbacked Jules Leroux · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.17
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Sotobacked Mwendwa Mbithi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.53
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Maja Chwalinska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.62
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbertbacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$77.65
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidelbacked Ella Seidel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.82
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaurbacked Benjamin Bonzi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.52
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Mariabacked Tatjana Maria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.23
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevezbacked Thiago Cigarran · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+400%+$79.99
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkelbacked Nikola Bartunkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.94
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilarbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.87
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parksbacked Alycia Parks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.88
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcanbacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$22.58
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarovabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$22.58
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.36
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.74
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Matteo Berrettini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$20.78
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublevbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$42.44
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoebacked Jaime Faria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.49
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignonbacked Matteo Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$89.19
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.89
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wubacked Yibing Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halysbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.83
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.74
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.08
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.55
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$43.33
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.88
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.58
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.7
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17.24
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.5
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.74
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$20.78
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.07
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$24.87
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.02
All 15 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.18
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.29
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffsbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$25.51
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.87
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$18.28
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.58
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.55
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.98
All 9 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stagebacked Game Hunters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.96
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$42.6
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.7
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.67
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.31
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.62
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$39.37
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.82
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.55
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$19.92
All 3 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)backed Valencia CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$4.24
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$39.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+72.2%+$9.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)backed ACF Fiorentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.