Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9222a839e8099ca4fc7aa08c121dd72f3d22f95979539d73fcc12ee8bf86f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 69c | 600$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.9 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 39c | 519.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.13 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 463.17$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 317.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 71c | 276.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 65c | 226$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 45c | 217.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 208.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 200.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 74c | 191.42$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 28c | 173.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Over | 73c | 140.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 43c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 62c | 129.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 214 | 74.3%159 W · 55 L | +44.8wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 74c | 121.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 19c | 107.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 51c | 97.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 33c | 48.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Over | 71c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Over | 71c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 29c | 38.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…56f6backed Over | 71c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…5d94backed Over | 71c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Over | 71c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.