Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c6f1d13e1713d647db72a7d85d07536d11218f62982731683491dd30555f9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 63c | 3,966$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.4 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 3,373$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.14 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 28c | 2,369$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.19 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 2,153$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.12 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 1,866$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.58 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 58c | 1,530$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 63c | 789.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.97 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 746.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 78c | 676.66$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 48c | 551.85$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.85 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 67c | 536.12$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 36c | 410$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 38c | 364.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 39c | 330$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 290.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 276.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 255.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 44c | 225.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 35c | 208$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 49c | 204.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 64c | 156.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 42c | 115.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Under | 67c | 97.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 89.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 64c | 87.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 46c | 65.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 59.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 65c | 51.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 65c | 51.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 43.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 63c | 40.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 31c | 39.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 63c | 36.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 41c | 31.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 44c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 58c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.