TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hanwha Life Esportsof Hanwha Life Esports, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,649,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,096,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,649,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed G2 Esports12c379,840$47,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,292.656046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked G2 Esports16c142,311$22,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,132.7225244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed G2 Esports14c118,758$16,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,656.481,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed G2 Esports5c70,553$3,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,233.122072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed G2 Esports4c57,445$2,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.815033.3%50 W · 100 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a0…9c09backed G2 Esports14c36,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed G2 Esports3c35,942$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.555147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9171…9e5fbacked G2 Esports14c33,921$4,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,874.792623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f6…37fcbacked G2 Esports15c30,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed G2 Esports12c28,138$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,241.238839.8%35 W · 53 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked G2 Esports14c27,500$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed G2 Esports17c27,000$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,59059450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x594d…059dbacked G2 Esports28c24,374$6,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,793.471145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked G2 Esports17c23,000$3,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,859.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed G2 Esports9c20,305$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.182,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked G2 Esports16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed G2 Esports10c18,945$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.541,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed G2 Esports1c18,668$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.045833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed G2 Esports11c16,377$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.836637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked G2 Esports16c15,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.991,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed G2 Esports15c14,787$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.121513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-71.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed G2 Esports10c13,837$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.7217729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked G2 Esports20c13,411$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.6167553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G2 Esports17c13,230$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.143442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da0…83f0backed G2 Esports4c12,204$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+121.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed G2 Esports4c12,173$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+86.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked G2 Esports16c11,099$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.841,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked G2 Esports3c10,675$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.6711138.7%43 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed G2 Esports15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed G2 Esports13c10,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked G2 Esports17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed G2 Esports10c9,716$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.6244851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked G2 Esports16c8,288$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.5663344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d8…19e6backed G2 Esports5c7,950$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3682821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed G2 Esports8c7,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60038624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…eb89backed G2 Esports0c7,260$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.686428.1%18 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+97%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed G2 Esports14c7,214$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01021939.3%86 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed G2 Esports2c6,988$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5528240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf024…fbd3backed G2 Esports9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54016546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d4…3619backed G2 Esports9c5,939$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…6e71backed G2 Esports4c5,885$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.411521.7%25 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed G2 Esports1c5,190$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.491612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-81.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e46…16a5backed G2 Esports15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.996541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed G2 Esports14c4,750$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6651,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Esports16c4,506$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.551,20643.5%525 W · 681 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed G2 Esports10c4,297$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.671,20740%483 W · 724 L-63.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed G2 Esports16c4,100$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65613121.4%28 W · 103 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed G2 Esports15c3,970$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.547533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ae…31bcbacked G2 Esports7c3,493$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed G2 Esports12c3,364$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.531,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed G2 Esports3c3,279$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0122932.3%74 W · 155 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed G2 Esports3c3,209$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.244040%16 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed G2 Esports1c3,203$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.516636.1%60 W · 106 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0f8…6b50backed G2 Esports15c3,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49212931.8%41 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports16c3,034$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.81,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e48…38fabacked G2 Esports3c3,024$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed G2 Esports1c3,001$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed G2 Esports12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36089347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked G2 Esports14c3,000$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6632442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked G2 Esports17c2,974$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports17c2,737$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.582,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479b…cdb1backed G2 Esports19c2,632$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004637%17 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed G2 Esports16c2,555$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.866752.2%35 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed G2 Esports16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked G2 Esports13c2,500$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.567549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed G2 Esports2c2,500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.56347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed G2 Esports3c2,400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6422324.7%55 W · 168 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hanwha Life Esports72c2,394$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.321,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked G2 Esports13c2,340$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked G2 Esports14c2,250$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.0217339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad2…63b7backed G2 Esports10c2,242$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a1…504cbacked G2 Esports15c2,158$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3162828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a08…47afbacked G2 Esports1c2,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019346.6%90 W · 103 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6aa…fcd1backed G2 Esports1c2,085$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Esports12c2,081$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.762,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked G2 Esports15c2,050$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.435552.7%29 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked G2 Esports10c2,026$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6224832.3%80 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ec…5c91backed G2 Esports15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaeb…92f6backed G2 Esports15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports16c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33088950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked G2 Esports8c1,946$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7320739.1%81 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…0ddcbacked G2 Esports2c1,920$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5812324.4%30 W · 93 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed G2 Esports15c1,906$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8424642.3%104 W · 142 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x134d…b07bbacked G2 Esports13c1,850$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4910231.4%32 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6857…9f77backed G2 Esports12c1,771$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.082433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b34…fb56backed G2 Esports5c1,765$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked G2 Esports15c1,693$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25753139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0e…8ba9backed G2 Esports3c1,667$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ab…dbe5backed G2 Esports9c1,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed G2 Esports14c1,600$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.452543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Hanwha Life Esports79c1,590$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.921736.9%80 W · 137 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea3f…9a9ebacked G2 Esports13c1,588$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+207.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed G2 Esports16c1,563$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509761.9%60 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed G2 Esports14c1,522$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0543640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb912…20f4backed G2 Esports12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed G2 Esports7c1,496$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0418139.2%71 W · 110 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked G2 Esports17c1,474$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25328253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f9b…7829backed G2 Esports4c1,336$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.627561.3%46 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed G2 Esports15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked G2 Esports8c1,329$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.523330%70 W · 163 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.