TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf024…fbd3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
224
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: CS2, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT16546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 165 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$91
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$64
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifierbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+203%+$80.4
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$114
LoL: LNG Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.76
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$145
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Group Stagebacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$187.82
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.71
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25.62
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.15
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$90.99
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.3
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
Showing 25 of 165 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$4,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,101.17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,590Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+518.2%+$13,420.37
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,486.69
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$395
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$131.25
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.1
Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$112
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.62
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.5
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
Japan leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.03
Argentina leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$245
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
Norway leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+150%+$299.98
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$7,301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,301.16
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,625Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$2,351.01
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+25%+$80
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+234.7%+$403.23
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.97
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,415Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$1,085
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,478Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,478.22
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$640
Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,403Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+33.2%+$798.65
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$545
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$436.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2026-08-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$516
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Iron Wing (+1.5)backed Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$263.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Mexico Lobos vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes (W)backed New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+29.1%+$64.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.