TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, DN SOOPers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,485,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,601,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,485,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 790 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DN SOOPers48c100,597$48,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,391.61,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T152c75,404$39,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,273.1859558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed DN SOOPers48c58,509$27,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,941.561,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked T152c40,023$20,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,079.8917555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked DN SOOPers46c40,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,599.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN SOOPers43c36,134$15,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,533.43,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN SOOPers47c35,339$16,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,769.081,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed DN SOOPers33c30,660$10,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,093.422,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed DN SOOPers26c26,593$6,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,856.7221347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T154c26,398$14,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,170.6989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked DN SOOPers23c20,317$4,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,767.5140546.2%187 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed DN SOOPers4c18,271$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.112020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked T135c17,731$6,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,559.6635058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked DN SOOPers61c16,768$10,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,164.637245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed T169c15,894$10,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,952.3250145.7%229 W · 272 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked DN SOOPers52c15,753$8,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,190.5225453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed DN SOOPers47c15,338$7,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,271.941,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed T179c15,000$11,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.812840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe98a…edffbacked DN SOOPers2c15,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003826.3%10 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+311.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed DN SOOPers20c14,513$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.7916043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed DN SOOPers51c14,258$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,280.151,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed T158c13,985$8,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,813.28041.3%33 W · 47 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed T149c13,325$6,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,857.0812160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed DN SOOPers47c12,330$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80018429.9%55 W · 129 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked DN SOOPers61c12,157$7,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,463.1528544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed DN SOOPers27c12,100$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.471,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked DN SOOPers47c11,695$5,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,515.1496048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed T159c11,630$6,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,786.5343442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed DN SOOPers60c11,562$6,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,912.982657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed T152c11,445$5,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,528.711,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab3e…de25backed T150c11,300$5,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,673.011573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick46cpaid+57%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed DN SOOPers23c11,062$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.2317348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked DN SOOPers29c10,924$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.861,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T152c10,432$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,987.5751146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked T154c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed T156c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4001,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0182…5d00backed DN SOOPers30c10,000$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.493138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed T178c9,899$7,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.5823672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed DN SOOPers46c9,875$4,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,578.7122355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x890b…1979backed DN SOOPers52c9,650$5,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,044.083852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DN SOOPers53c9,423$4,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,990.721,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed T156c9,001$5,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970.5317241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed T155c8,556$4,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,863.7522240.1%89 W · 133 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T152c8,500$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,07591854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked DN SOOPers61c8,362$5,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,128.7221968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed T154c8,318$4,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,811.1613947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed DN SOOPers55c7,980$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,378.5554756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed DN SOOPers47c7,764$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.0657957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked T147c7,550$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,993.8154934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked T148c7,373$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.5636155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed DN SOOPers50c7,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.411,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed DN SOOPers51c6,928$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.8385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked T157c6,906$3,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.8590537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked DN SOOPers50c6,780$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.9249940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed T149c6,300$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.499255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked T155c6,130$3,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.8953355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked T155c6,127$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.943655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T154c6,000$3,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed DN SOOPers1c5,954$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.889944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked T147c5,800$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,073.989435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked T173c5,737$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.4167553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed T154c5,720$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,624.866434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed DN SOOPers7c5,500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38012717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed T173c5,275$3,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.1827447.4%130 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac6…122fbacked DN SOOPers21c5,208$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked DN SOOPers51c5,090$2,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.2418459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed T154c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30046050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked T134c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30025944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce5…02b3backed DN SOOPers1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%0 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked DN SOOPers32c4,985$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.6532442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed DN SOOPers39c4,971$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.5912843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed T155c4,848$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,186.455844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed T157c4,828$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.526851.5%35 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed DN SOOPers27c4,732$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.3816845.2%76 W · 92 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed T156c4,730$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,095.6111247.3%53 W · 59 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa043…b419backed DN SOOPers28c4,540$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.2210543.8%46 W · 59 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed DN SOOPers67c4,478$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked DN SOOPers28c4,469$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.6414841.2%61 W · 87 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ba…b673backed T158c4,450$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.969028.9%26 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed T170c4,298$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.8443837.9%166 W · 272 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked T141c4,231$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.7785742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked DN SOOPers46c4,210$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.195048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed T152c4,200$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed T175c4,024$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.5448742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked T173c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked T153c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.988060%48 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…a1b2backed T177c3,999$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.731450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed DN SOOPers4c3,994$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.681175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf423…2cf8backed T137c3,936$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.051947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed DN SOOPers46c3,862$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.829344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed DN SOOPers50c3,848$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.927431.1%23 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed T154c3,839$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.0528836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked T152c3,800$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82420546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed DN SOOPers33c3,586$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.451,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked T154c3,500$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60520147.3%95 W · 106 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed T147c3,346$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.7416346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed DN SOOPers60c3,323$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.676950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed DN SOOPers46c3,136$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.3427346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed DN SOOPers12c3,075$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.971,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked DN SOOPers49c3,011$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.0128642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.