Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Iron Wing (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03503e6723d7f59230c699162527d1ec393a2c3f5c87adeb92d5a5c0645e7b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iron Wingof Team Falcons, Iron Wing
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Iron Wing | 68c | 3,834$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.84 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed Team Falcons | 32c | 1,991$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.12 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…b26bbacked Team Falcons | 36c | 842.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…fbd3backed Iron Wing | 68c | 815.99$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e7…68d2backed Team Falcons | 31c | 795.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Falcons | 31c | 787.64$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.73 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons | 32c | 582.35$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.35 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Falcons | 33c | 426.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Iron Wing | 69c | 394.4$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Iron Wing | 65c | 236.38$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Team Falcons | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…fbccbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Iron Wing | 66c | 159.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Iron Wing | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…cc1abacked Iron Wing | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Iron Wing | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Iron Wing | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Falcons | 16c | 119.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Team Falcons | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed Iron Wing | 68c | 111.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Team Falcons | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Falcons | 33c | 99.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Falcons | 33c | 87.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Iron Wing | 65c | 63.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Iron Wing | 66c | 60.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…2f0dbacked Iron Wing | 68c | 58.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Falcons | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Iron Wing | 67c | 47.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Team Falcons | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Iron Wing | 56c | 41.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Iron Wing | 68c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Iron Wing | 65c | 36.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Iron Wing | 63c | 32.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Iron Wing | 61c | 30.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Iron Wing | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Iron Wing | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Iron Wing (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group StageIron Wing won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerIron Wing won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.