TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof JD Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,241,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,351,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,241,347 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed EDward Gaming6c171,130$10,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,781.4225546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed EDward Gaming14c125,310$17,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,913.434037.5%15 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming15c73,102$11,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,108.151,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked EDward Gaming16c43,053$6,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,894.4225453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef7…0a2dbacked EDward Gaming17c40,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6003641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked EDward Gaming15c39,579$5,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,936.8420546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56b9…79a2backed EDward Gaming15c30,600$4,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7102532%8 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked EDward Gaming17c30,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00031328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed EDward Gaming15c21,625$3,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.7648742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed EDward Gaming14c20,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x870f…6da1backed EDward Gaming15c18,699$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.896445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed EDward Gaming15c18,027$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.0538235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed EDward Gaming15c16,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed EDward Gaming17c15,500$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634.9812840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed EDward Gaming16c13,162$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.7330843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked EDward Gaming14c11,925$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.417444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed EDward Gaming15c11,313$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6971,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x719b…30e5backed EDward Gaming15c11,199$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.851513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed EDward Gaming15c10,765$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.7216933.1%56 W · 113 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed EDward Gaming15c10,550$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.48334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked EDward Gaming15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked EDward Gaming18c10,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80014342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed EDward Gaming5c9,245$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed EDward Gaming17c8,627$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.2532234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387f…2095backed EDward Gaming15c7,200$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed EDward Gaming13c7,000$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.51,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed EDward Gaming18c7,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.992642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed EDward Gaming10c6,211$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.021,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed EDward Gaming18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9943442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed EDward Gaming17c4,800$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83245338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked EDward Gaming16c4,593$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9124535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed EDward Gaming7c4,374$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0415648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed EDward Gaming15c4,148$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.6747533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed EDward Gaming18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e83…5e31backed EDward Gaming19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked EDward Gaming17c3,800$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65389050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed EDward Gaming16c3,720$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.7816845.2%76 W · 92 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked EDward Gaming15c3,716$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.44245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed EDward Gaming19c3,614$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.7454529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d71…a961backed EDward Gaming15c3,460$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5192420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming13c3,227$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.942,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed EDward Gaming4c3,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10822932.3%74 W · 155 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e0b…bc0dbacked EDward Gaming15c2,400$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa584…067ebacked EDward Gaming15c2,400$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+108.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked EDward Gaming17c2,390$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.3753829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked EDward Gaming14c2,247$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.761,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked EDward Gaming15c2,100$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31567549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming15c2,099$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.762,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked EDward Gaming15c2,031$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.683026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked EDward Gaming17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed EDward Gaming14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28029447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked EDward Gaming15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009849%48 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d6…3e1ebacked EDward Gaming1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105020%10 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed EDward Gaming17c1,955$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.311,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked EDward Gaming16c1,909$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1994444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c85…775bbacked EDward Gaming19c1,721$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec9…1e0cbacked EDward Gaming15c1,640$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed EDward Gaming15c1,600$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.551,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked EDward Gaming16c1,598$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.67243.1%31 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed EDward Gaming16c1,563$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021939.3%86 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed EDward Gaming15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22522746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed EDward Gaming15c1,482$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3322536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f8…2239backed EDward Gaming15c1,473$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked EDward Gaming15c1,384$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.673554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae22…3ab3backed EDward Gaming15c1,300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1957027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked EDward Gaming15c1,298$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.751,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed EDward Gaming15c1,280$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19237647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked EDward Gaming7c1,272$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2728149.8%140 W · 141 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed EDward Gaming8c1,234$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7240726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked EDward Gaming13c1,233$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15615536.1%56 W · 99 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked EDward Gaming15c1,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked EDward Gaming16c1,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8348844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked EDward Gaming15c1,180$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1778046.3%37 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e3…22abbacked EDward Gaming15c1,172$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.81850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed EDward Gaming10c1,170$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0312326%32 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked EDward Gaming15c1,156$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.741,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed EDward Gaming17c1,107$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9135542.3%150 W · 205 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1b…a1b2backed EDward Gaming19c1,106$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.141020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-74.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0bae…cec4backed EDward Gaming19c1,075$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.26451.6%33 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming19c1,060$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.42,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed EDward Gaming15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked EDward Gaming17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked EDward Gaming17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked EDward Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed EDward Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…91a2backed EDward Gaming15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked EDward Gaming8c999.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed EDward Gaming15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed EDward Gaming17c999.98$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718344.6%37 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked EDward Gaming15c885.07$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked EDward Gaming15c843$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4554934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed EDward Gaming18c820$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.631337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4c…068abacked EDward Gaming7c799.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked EDward Gaming16c789.85$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6866845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed EDward Gaming7c783.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.997854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0984…5933backed EDward Gaming15c750$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b7…a214backed JD Gaming79c730$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.034276.2%32 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked EDward Gaming2c713.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c7…9cdabacked EDward Gaming7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+38.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.