Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e44df4eeb94b60d036f8dcfadca06cbc05a3d4c2a017528cbc7e021e9bf3b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,028,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $830,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,028,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 182,403$3,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 45,755$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 38,991$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.59 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 2c | 31,727$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.76 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 22,268$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 20,135$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.87 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 5c | 19,503$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.97 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 13,792$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.53 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 4c | 12,800$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.78 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,784$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.34 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 9,300$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 8,870$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 8,389$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.36 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 8,379$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 1c | 7,866$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,697$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes | 4c | 7,044$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.65 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 8c | 6,591$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.39 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 5,854$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 3c | 4,950$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 4,829$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 4,296$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,008$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 2c | 3,877$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,809$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,563$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 3,480$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 2c | 3,247$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,984$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 4c | 2,828$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,782$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,781$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…8d07backed Yes | 4c | 2,687$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 2,507$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 2,450$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,430$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 6c | 2,380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,377$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 7c | 2,337$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…74cbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,190$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,172$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 3c | 2,150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 11c | 2,040$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 2,026$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 3c | 2,005$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 4c | 2,003$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.24 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,993$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 2c | 1,907$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 2c | 1,889$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,826$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 10c | 1,765$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.91 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 2c | 1,765$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,695$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,600$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,596$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,579$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 6c | 1,574$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,567$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…6e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 6c | 1,399$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,383$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d09…71ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,360$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,303$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,298$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,282$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 10c | 1,275$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…c6f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,192$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,153$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…5501backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…232bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 998.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 3c | 993.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…5ab8backed Yes | 3c | 957.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 1c | 950$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 2c | 925.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes | 2c | 922.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…4586backed Yes | 14c | 916.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 14c | 914.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 3c | 913.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 4c | 911.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 12c | 847.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 1c | 839.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…7714backed Yes | 2c | 824.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 4c | 813.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 1c | 813.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed Yes | 5c | 790.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.