TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$557,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$393,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $557,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c96…1959backed Yes8c27,000$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.485228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c25,434$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.11,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes5c25,217$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.982259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes12c21,950$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.576457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes12c21,092$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.4563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes16c19,964$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.3966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes15c12,485$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.8157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce4…9ebbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes11c8,656$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.2345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes5c7,500$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes19c7,085$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.9160127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes5c6,920$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.041,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571a…3315backed Yes13c6,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-71.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes14c5,350$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7655141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes6c4,998$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes27c4,913$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.276114.8%9 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c4,748$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.6654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes6c4,518$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2828016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes36c4,500$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.4724115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes17c4,494$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.6324815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes1c4,409$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.513423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes9c4,319$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8136411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes31c3,926$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.2914025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes38c3,920$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.415635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes22c3,694$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.536216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,465$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes5c3,223$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2962713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes10c3,166$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7556429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes19c3,013$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9946521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c3,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7162412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes4c2,940$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2732613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f6…9404backed Yes20c2,755$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.624825%12 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No73c2,746$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.7738828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes15c2,700$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1916110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c2,697$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes25c2,632$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes27c2,545$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67817126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760e…119ebacked Yes10c2,504$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.124233.3%14 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No69c2,225$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.7241017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No71c2,218$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.4615164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes10c2,191$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.144214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ad…32e4backed Yes1c2,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113229.5%39 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes36c2,100$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.2313318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes33c2,000$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.8518822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32f…eef8backed Yes5c1,848$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.321030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef5…4969backed No77c1,820$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.951291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick71cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x740f…a3a6backed Yes19c1,755$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…5ab8backed Yes15c1,609$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.032611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes14c1,487$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3525023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes3c1,338$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4414413.2%19 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes14c1,335$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8218618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes23c1,310$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes11c1,300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6456817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes2c1,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2342719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes29c1,264$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.3920735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cd…c66abacked Yes24c1,250$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.191233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No79c1,236$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cac…1f4cbacked Yes18c1,228$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.144042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed Yes26c1,215$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6521242.5%90 W · 122 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c7…1488backed Yes1c1,195$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes10c1,125$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.737216.7%12 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes6c1,118$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5610414.4%15 W · 89 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes10c1,113$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7918722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes17c1,107$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9515430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes22c1,035$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4117628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes6c1,022$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.823844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7007…8624backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Yes6c999.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes35c999.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes10c999.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes28c975.84$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.681,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes18c911.55$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1522718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No77c910.89$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.69058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b01…24a9backed Yes40c910.62$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.131942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes28c904.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4221233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…01d9backed Yes39c900.17$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.461631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes11c899.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975717.5%10 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…5be3backed Yes21c891.28$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.835740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes22c880$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.634215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d09…71ffbacked Yes10c877.02$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.12615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d3…f535backed No80c875.62$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes11c868.54$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes2c858$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.024719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes15c844.26$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258527.1%23 W · 62 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes2c842.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.857820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes31c832.59$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.712136.4%44 W · 77 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…643ebacked Yes22c806$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.949328%26 W · 67 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes22c778.05$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.218325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes8c767.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1812216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes10c705.1$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.514526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes21c700$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.57115.5%11 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b4…5d76backed Yes26c699.98$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1792035%7 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked No60c676.7$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes18c667.29$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes13c651.1$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3327316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9528…64bcbacked Yes17c649.74$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x685e…232bbacked Yes22c643.02$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes16c636.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes42c596.63$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb556…ca63backed Yes19c579.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.77830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.