TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa26…643e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 53 out of 100; worst Cricket at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT9328%26 W · 67 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.24
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$19.14
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$32.99
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+254.6%+$35.9
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$68.4
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.36
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.92
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Cricket — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$12.6
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.13
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kingsbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.09
T20 World Cup: England vs Indiabacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistanbacked Sri Lanka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealandbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+270.4%+$73
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africabacked West Indies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1)backed Scotland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$101
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs USA (Game 1)backed USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+25%+$5
T20 World Cup: Netherlands vs USA (Game 1)backed Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1)backed Nepal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$49
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.2%+$88.29
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$48.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+284.6%+$34.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Bucksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+45.6%+$5.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15.78
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.