TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$364,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,568 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c14,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c14,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c11,034$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.391,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a7…6197backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes0c10,522$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c10,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0932716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes0c9,885$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.643411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes0c9,800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5232615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0262…d7b6backed Yes1c9,759$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.07214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf2…dc53backed Yes1c8,129$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes1c7,510$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes0c6,587$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3112514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c6,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.325718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c5,589$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.16097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,555$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.672785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c5,239$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No79c5,054$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.6123217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes0c4,985$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.221557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes21c4,761$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.518324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes8c4,599$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4282714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c4,541$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.81,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c4,387$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.054568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c3,580$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes0c3,037$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes4c2,855$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No76c2,500$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.8570616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes22c2,469$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.2832016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes32c2,420$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.484226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4265…851fbacked Yes33c2,410$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.073729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c2,380$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.891,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes2c2,364$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5915817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes16c2,081$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.388610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No66c2,054$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.0210866.7%72 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…f144backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006026.7%16 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No73c1,785$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.4454675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,657$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.214916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes4c1,600$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.97121.1%15 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c1,455$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.332,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes17c1,440$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.926936.2%25 W · 44 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes24c1,432$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.864431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c11…ef93backed Yes20c1,300$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes2c1,285$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.411011.8%13 W · 97 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes5c1,285$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708721.8%19 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes3c1,222$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6821732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes2c1,212$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.87837.2%6 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes3c1,034$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.492176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes37c1,019$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.843622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006111.5%7 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes26c998.79$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.456930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes20c998.53$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5327224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9da…aa1cbacked Yes39c982.81$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed No76c950.41$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3412421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a2c…b7f7backed Yes28c948.38$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.42025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes22c924.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No74c915.56$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3612227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c863.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca8…ed52backed Yes7c840.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfed…3d4fbacked Yes24c829.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes14c824.5$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6821521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes24c807.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.769416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes30c804.8$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0365623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes37c800.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006323.8%15 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No73c790.66$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.4910547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c790$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3319756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes28c782.57$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22310730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…3684backed Yes21c735.24$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.214327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes6c704.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.871,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes29c698.23$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7232529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes33c680$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.46529.2%19 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No76c656.38$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.55567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c650.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5611418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes32c629.78$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.534835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes20c628.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12414913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No76c608.62$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Yes22c605.7$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.21020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed Yes23c599.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1384537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No75c599.98$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9918877.1%145 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes26c599.65$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.920723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes20c587.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2440719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes14c578.8$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.911421.1%24 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No80c565.3$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.753284.4%27 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick80cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes22c531.43$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9112117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes2c520.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3212117.4%21 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c509.85$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.391,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes4c501.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-85.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes25c499.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12711721.4%25 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc3…7d0abacked Yes29c499.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.995026%13 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes8c492.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.923314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes33c475.33$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0111224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes12c464.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3919314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes23c450$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10448819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe106…4529backed Yes22c444.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.291040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes19c443.74$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.31365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a0…77a9backed Yes20c441.14$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.12626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes24c432.86$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044918.4%9 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes22c429.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.