Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9568a7c462a0542ef6b341ef02daa70fc55cdd98c9b7de6fa4dfcb85c4638a69

Rebuilt 48 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $303,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes	0c	42,059$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	1c	30,000$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.84	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	19,050$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes	1c	15,216$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.02	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	10,258$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	7,392$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	6,665$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	6,488$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	0c	6,235$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	5,990$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	5,613$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.8	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	1c	4,427$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.19	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,209$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	2,921$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	2,805$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	2,800$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	2,800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	2,533$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.25	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	0c	2,301$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,059$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	1c	2,022$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	1,926$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	1c	1,784$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	1,674$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	2c	1,326$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	2c	1,316$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	1,285$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	875$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	685$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7246…976bbacked Yes	4c	536.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event