Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5602d61f3a5b1653d0aa34c5685648149155ec1d6e7ae115db1eb74497260df5

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $391,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $208,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,631 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	21,750$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	19,756$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.96	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes	1c	13,126$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.83	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	12,414$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.72	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	12,243$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	12,173$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.3	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes	2c	10,715$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.61	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4265…851fbacked Yes	2c	10,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	9,722$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.02	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	8,360$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,347$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.75	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	6,598$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	6,261$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.83	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	6,213$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.68	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,021$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x458a…7c32backed Yes	3c	5,723$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	5,255$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.24	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d7…2ffbbacked Yes	2c	4,800$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.59	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	4,607$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	4,334$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.36	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8576…f4bfbacked Yes	0c	3,791$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	3,266$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.29	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	1c	3,227$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.43	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	3,216$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	3c	3,200$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.61	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81b8…cf17backed Yes	0c	3,125$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7d…b3ffbacked Yes	0c	3,047$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	3,000$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	2,788$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.31	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,436$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.25	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,143$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,027$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes	1c	1,800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b61…a7fabacked Yes	3c	1,760$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.14	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	1,727$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	1c	1,710$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	1c	1,701$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	1,609$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	1,607$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,520$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	3c	1,506$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	1,455$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	2c	1,451$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	2c	1,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.93	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,086$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	5c	1,065$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes	1c	1,062$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	1,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	918.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	2c	799.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	3c	766.78$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	3c	727.67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	3c	694.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	2c	689.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	587.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	2c	567.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	4c	525.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.06	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	507.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a28…1df7backed Yes	4c	458.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	180	24.4%44 W · 136 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	331.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes	4c	317.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	257.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7246…976bbacked Yes	8c	242.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	4c	238.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes	8c	199.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Yes	8c	180.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event