Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a79886eb7af23dfba67032736d1d141187b0c80c176594b7a8d41540715ac6

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $122,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,678 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,230$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.67	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	4,194$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.3	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	3,619$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.41	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes	3c	3,548$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.94	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,450$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	7c	3,410$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.54	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	7c	3,087$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.34	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	13c	3,000$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	8c	2,686$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.04	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,557$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.41	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	2,203$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.3	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	2,110$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.03	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	3c	1,800$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	8c	1,621$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.48	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	11c	1,615$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.3	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes	11c	1,199$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.06	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	6c	1,157$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.37	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	1,098$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.42	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	10c	1,086$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.92	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes	13c	1,055$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.15	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	4c	992.95$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	907.68$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	882.97$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.64	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	862.16$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.21	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	821.7$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.56	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	8c	816.04$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.49	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	729.96$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	663.59$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.12	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	8c	628.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.32	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	11c	623.25$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.68	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	9c	540.41$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.23	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	10c	519.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.62	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	6c	514.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	10c	512.4$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	455.05$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46a0…77a9backed Yes	8c	452.81$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.06	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	10c	440$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28e…01bfbacked Yes	11c	411.72$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.65	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	6c	401.7$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	8c	400.44$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	9c	390.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	8c	327.93$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaee…8911backed Yes	11c	270$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	11c	217.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	8c	202.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked Yes	8c	192.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes	9c	190$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	112	24.1%27 W · 85 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9f…461ebacked Yes	14c	179.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	+9.6wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+31%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	13c	177.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	10c	164.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9277…c2d7backed Yes	12c	163.91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc4…1403backed Yes	11c	144.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca8…ed52backed Yes	12c	138.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…680abacked Yes	9c	135.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	133.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes	14c	118$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c36…0f09backed Yes	11c	115.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	13c	103.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9bd…be92backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event