TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,790,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,496,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,790,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,489 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Bucks51c454,012$233,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,376.2615443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Lakers49c438,945$214,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224,076.532365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Lakers50c128,810$64,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,979.814456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lakers53c80,000$42,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,20038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Lakers54c50,000$26,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,005.133234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Bucks39c48,443$18,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,749.0419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks49c45,549$22,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,293.291,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a47…0c54backed Lakers53c38,131$20,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,833.771833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers51c37,598$19,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,500.722,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bucks51c33,324$17,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,133.941,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Bucks49c29,096$14,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,395.021936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks46c28,090$13,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,024.72,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks52c24,265$12,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,598.3369852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Lakers46c23,500$10,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,57551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks5c23,339$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.711,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks52c21,775$11,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,323.0274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bucks1c21,411$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.728783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Bucks27c21,060$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,649.7134645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers55c20,956$11,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,503.464,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers62c20,929$13,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,862.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,60051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers46c19,960$9,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,778.327251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6b…a33dbacked Bucks1c19,400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24810914.7%16 W · 93 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers53c18,817$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,816.9834062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers51c15,157$7,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.662,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Lakers48c15,100$7,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,906.9261835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Lakers63c15,000$9,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,52520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Lakers46c14,900$6,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0466352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Bucks0c13,230$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed Lakers46c13,000$5,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0201070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lakers68c12,937$8,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,164.1326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bucks51c10,836$5,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,509.4866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c84…2929backed Bucks48c10,800$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,184757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Lakers47c10,650$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,644.4811443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…24abbacked Lakers53c10,500$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9357100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Lakers49c10,161$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,182.273154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x523a…6beabacked Bucks48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,800633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Bucks55c9,351$5,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,101.333351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Bucks51c9,000$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5905850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks0c8,965$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.368820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Bucks48c8,939$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.8417250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers46c8,867$4,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,760.371,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Lakers50c8,866$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.5678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fe…e95dbacked Lakers53c8,600$4,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,041.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3298…8ea9backed Lakers53c8,500$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Lakers51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.9918142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Bucks48c7,708$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.971,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lakers51c7,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.9676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b15…4637backed Bucks48c6,700$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,216728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Lakers69c6,600$4,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.3752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Lakers62c6,576$4,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.1785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Bucks50c6,524$3,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.6341652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks47c6,455$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.222,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x647f…c4d1backed Bucks45c6,380$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Bucks13c6,378$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5191…8192backed Lakers55c6,374$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bucks47c6,269$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.4359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks47c5,922$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.919,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Bucks26c5,713$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.48351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Lakers50c5,300$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6506155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Bucks53c5,270$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7939445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Lakers61c5,134$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.8850838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lakers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Lakers53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Bucks10c4,936$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lakers46c4,861$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.1770147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Bucks52c4,800$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.9723135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lakers54c4,684$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.141,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bucks52c4,630$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.7162351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bucks52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9747748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bucks53c4,300$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Bucks52c4,300$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2362740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Lakers48c4,300$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.9911149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c41…0c90backed Lakers47c4,208$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks7c4,123$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.011,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Bucks5c3,900$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9517141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers70c3,878$2,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.943,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e86…5899backed Bucks54c3,862$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.643256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks1c3,854$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.171,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks53c3,784$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.62,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Bucks26c3,700$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.1929458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bucks3c3,689$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Bucks48c3,570$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.5951753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Bucks43c3,500$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.2418047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked Bucks3c3,392$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Bucks47c3,274$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.824330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x722c…a786backed Bucks9c3,266$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+71.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bucks48c3,256$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.8847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Bucks46c3,203$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.5311354%61 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bucks29c3,100$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Lakers49c3,063$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bucks1c3,049$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.587211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b7…74a9backed Bucks3c3,026$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4477…55aabacked Bucks47c2,953$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks39c2,940$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.243,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Lakers52c2,840$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.4744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bucks22c2,839$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.521,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lakers48c2,837$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.344648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Lakers46c2,740$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.249256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.