NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce10d732957cf6436089e0221929b52aba90a436816dbd0fc27778eb55075d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 12,464$5,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,740.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 54c | 5,206$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.24 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 54c | 677.78$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 290$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Over | 50c | 134.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 55c | 113.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8cabacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be0…7491backed Over | 55c | 50.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Over | 54c | 44.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 35.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 54c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Over | 54c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…cc98backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5this page
- Lakers vs. BucksLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.