NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30aafda74bced40a40230a91343ea9bc07517b23d5d2a04ad5777d08a6142b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6752…d728backed Bucks | 56c | 2,696$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Lakers | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Lakers | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 45c | 985$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks | 50c | 908$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 48c | 820.09$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 52c | 597.14$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Lakers | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Bucks | 52c | 400.96$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Lakers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Bucks | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers | 50c | 374$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.26 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Bucks | 51c | 329.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Lakers | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 50c | 201.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 48c | 153.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 49c | 150.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Lakers | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Bucks | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Lakers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Bucks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Bucks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Bucks | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Lakers | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Bucks | 53c | 47.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Bucks | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Lakers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…5430backed Lakers | 45c | 30.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Lakers | 44c | 28.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lakers | 53c | 23.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…2edebacked Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bucks | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)this page
- Lakers vs. BucksLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.