TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c2,058$1,093 inWon+$964.719,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Over48c1,088$522 inLost-$522.2412452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inLost-$299.882,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Over46c572.73$263 inLost-$263.4624147.3%114 W · 127 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over43c500$215 inLost-$2154650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c400$200 inLost-$20084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under54c347$187 inWon+$159.622,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost-$10014040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over46c217.8$100 inLost-$100.192,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under50c200$100 inWon+$10061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked Under56c197$110 inWon+$86.686648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Under56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.578045%36 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over46c102$47 inLost-$46.922,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa43…5813backed Under56c100$56 inWon+$442969%20 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2aba…7d56backed Under56c71.43$40 inWon+$31.434459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over50c60$30 inLost-$3019451.5%100 W · 94 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57bc…d82dbacked Under57c56$32 inWon+$24.085657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be8…f449backed Under57c52.94$30 inWon+$22.949644.8%43 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbba2…eaa6backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$2016357.1%93 W · 70 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Under56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.719852%51 W · 47 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over41c33.9$14 inLost-$13.92,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Under59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.98661.6%53 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…44febacked Under55c30$16 inWon+$13.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Under56c24$13 inWon+$10.5610945%49 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under53c21.28$11 inWon+$104,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.