NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x478f3d29385a35a0db48e273ca5caa547d6cd07f7cbcab9a88b0cae9e37b9b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 25,810$12,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,869.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 52c | 23,099$12,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,087.53 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 10,922$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 6,036$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,166.6 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Over | 51c | 5,322$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.41 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 50c | 4,636$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 2,658$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.82 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 1,212$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.11 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,118$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 53c | 642$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 580.77$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.38 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 369$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Under | 50c | 343$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 316.76$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 52c | 193.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 50c | 182.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…86a8backed Over | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 110.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked Over | 52c | 60.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 60.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…a09dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…2ab8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5this page
- Lakers vs. BucksLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.