TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$378,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c51,873$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5645511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes0c30,083$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6715128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c26,615$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.951,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes1c15,230$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6266222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes0c12,575$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3716110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes5c6,099$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes1c5,173$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92220%0 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes4c4,747$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c4,705$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.981,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa26…643ebacked Yes3c4,600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1389328%26 W · 67 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes3c4,512$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2624815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes14c4,230$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.8324115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes3c4,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13636411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes7c3,944$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.846216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes0c3,022$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cac…1f4cbacked Yes3c2,823$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.744042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes1c2,729$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c2,697$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes8c2,602$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes15c2,600$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes7c2,389$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5315819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes15c2,290$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.55414.8%8 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes7c2,250$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.481,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes6c2,059$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6634215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes3c1,922$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes1c1,894$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55717.5%10 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes5c1,800$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9732110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes2c1,600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.81513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+452.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18018822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c1,476$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.579811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes15c1,435$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.427544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c1,427$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6d…0446backed Yes1c1,389$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.743941%16 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes19c1,322$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes16c1,266$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes4c1,219$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes2c1,142$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2612216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes3c1,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337913.9%11 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes12c999.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes3c999.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe398…01d9backed Yes19c900$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.651631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c863.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes8c720$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.82524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes5c699.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c637.24$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6386…c6f1backed Yes4c625$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c599.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes16c541.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.253408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes12c513$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.699727.8%27 W · 70 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes15c509.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010811.1%12 W · 96 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes6c499.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3514818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes11c492.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2960127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes19c489.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes11c455.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…35c7backed Yes7c452.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes14c440.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7719317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes16c431.49$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5119927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes20c421.65$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.73808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed0…8817backed Yes12c400.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes14c392.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1212219.7%24 W · 98 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes10c384.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379515.8%15 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes15c358.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.826423.4%15 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes3c344.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233415.6%52 W · 282 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…f58bbacked Yes3c311.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.633627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes18c300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5313023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes16c300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes16c299.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810114.9%15 W · 86 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes10c297.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.796915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes15c297.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455026%13 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed Yes20c290$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.034240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes11c281.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5726211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc562…b5c9backed Yes10c278.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.088021.3%17 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes7c274.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5765311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes22c249.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6715017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes17c233.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbad…0661backed Yes5c212.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes11c211.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0318224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbd…3e35backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227432.4%24 W · 50 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2758…3176backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c198.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes14c190$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66621.2%14 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes16c189.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.435212.8%45 W · 307 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes17c185.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2223…f7f9backed Yes8c178.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes16c163.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9416420.7%34 W · 130 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes17c151$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1927316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes11c148.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.752619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208215.9%13 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.