Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367f01a22eff1706b4271b2454775cf95843ad05169b31147d80b977c11bfd62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $378,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 51,873$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.56 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 0c | 30,083$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 26,615$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.95 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 15,230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 0c | 12,575$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 5c | 6,099$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.51 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 4c | 4,747$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 4,705$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…643ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 3c | 4,512$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 14c | 4,230$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.83 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 3,944$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.84 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,022$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…1f4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,823$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,729$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,697$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 8c | 2,602$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,600$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.18 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,389$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 15c | 2,290$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.5 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 2,250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 2,059$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,922$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 1c | 1,894$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +452.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,435$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 14c | 1,427$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.41 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 1c | 1,389$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,322$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 16c | 1,266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,219$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…01d9backed Yes | 19c | 900$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 863.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes | 8c | 720$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 5c | 699.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 637.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…c6f1backed Yes | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 599.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 16c | 541.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 12c | 513$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes | 15c | 509.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 11c | 492.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 19c | 489.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 11c | 455.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 7c | 452.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 14c | 440.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 16c | 431.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 20c | 421.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…8817backed Yes | 12c | 400.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 14c | 392.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 10c | 384.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…40f6backed Yes | 15c | 358.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 3c | 344.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…f58bbacked Yes | 3c | 311.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 101 | 14.9%15 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 297.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 15c | 297.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 20c | 290$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 11c | 281.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…b5c9backed Yes | 10c | 278.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 274.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 22c | 249.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 17c | 233.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…0661backed Yes | 5c | 212.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 11c | 211.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…3e35backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 198.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 16c | 189.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 185.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2223…f7f9backed Yes | 8c | 178.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 163.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 17c | 151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 148.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…4ef5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.