TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof KT Rolster, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,127,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,428,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,127,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe548…a9febacked KT Rolster12c43,343$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.4517555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked KT Rolster9c35,990$3,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.5612036.7%44 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed KT Rolster5c32,940$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64789347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed KT Rolster11c25,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster12c21,721$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.1447533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Gen.G78c18,523$14,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.8996048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster12c16,918$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.532,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Gen.G75c15,504$11,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,821.261,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7b…1659backed KT Rolster22c15,205$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,407.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98a…edffbacked KT Rolster0c14,746$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.753826.3%10 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+311.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster14c14,522$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.0857246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed KT Rolster6c13,962$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.6817933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gen.G65c13,902$9,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,877.863,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed KT Rolster60c13,037$7,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,824.5112840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5055…b09bbacked KT Rolster4c11,514$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7513735%48 W · 89 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KT Rolster26c10,507$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.952,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked KT Rolster6c10,341$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.1425944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed KT Rolster21c10,253$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.0235542.3%150 W · 205 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed KT Rolster7c9,082$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.7641644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked KT Rolster36c8,505$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.8154134.8%188 W · 353 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster14c8,056$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.821,30138.6%502 W · 799 L-65.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KT Rolster10c7,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Gen.G61c7,143$4,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.237245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed KT Rolster28c7,006$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.2616845.2%76 W · 92 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed KT Rolster5c6,824$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.216637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Gen.G40c6,725$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,038.4358259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed KT Rolster50c6,575$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.1223445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed KT Rolster1c5,732$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G59c5,615$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.321,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed KT Rolster45c5,605$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.7117348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Gen.G75c5,000$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.4322355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Gen.G40c4,727$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,847.4616346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Gen.G40c4,705$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,825.5762158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KT Rolster1c4,678$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster13c4,245$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.122,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed KT Rolster10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed KT Rolster11c3,903$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.1947838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed KT Rolster15c3,820$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4713240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked Gen.G56c3,715$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.1418459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed KT Rolster28c3,508$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.916933.1%56 W · 113 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed KT Rolster25c3,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.9932234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked KT Rolster40c3,496$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.594055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Gen.G54c3,425$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.761,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked KT Rolster14c3,241$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.7113530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed KT Rolster5c3,182$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4752747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Gen.G38c3,158$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.031,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed KT Rolster15c3,066$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.891,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked KT Rolster8c3,050$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25267115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed KT Rolster9c3,021$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28034137.8%129 W · 212 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Gen.G80c3,000$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.1946050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed KT Rolster7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21039851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Gen.G60c2,874$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.5964247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked KT Rolster7c2,857$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008055%44 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7259…000dbacked KT Rolster27c2,851$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Gen.G64c2,845$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.8669442.1%292 W · 402 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbf…1a6bbacked KT Rolster14c2,772$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.271560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked KT Rolster46c2,729$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2586429.7%19 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed KT Rolster12c2,613$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.513947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed KT Rolster26c2,594$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.9843238%164 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked KT Rolster7c2,550$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.781,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed KT Rolster10c2,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked KT Rolster33c2,496$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.211,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd25…902abacked Gen.G39c2,487$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Gen.G57c2,329$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.658844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed KT Rolster6c2,307$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.981,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75dc…6a1dbacked KT Rolster4c2,188$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5229331.4%92 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed KT Rolster29c2,164$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.2734448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked KT Rolster33c2,147$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.3734835.3%123 W · 225 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed KT Rolster8c2,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508046.3%37 W · 43 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed KT Rolster6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12032045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed KT Rolster3c1,914$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4912717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeae…a2fabacked KT Rolster5c1,897$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8510237.3%38 W · 64 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked KT Rolster5c1,875$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014841.2%61 W · 87 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked KT Rolster50c1,866$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.3610223.5%24 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed KT Rolster51c1,808$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.4854429.6%161 W · 383 L-35.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed KT Rolster13c1,800$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23428836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked KT Rolster9c1,794$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4488950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Gen.G43c1,746$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.8712843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x495c…c9eabacked KT Rolster40c1,720$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6882040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed KT Rolster34c1,679$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.284143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Gen.G59c1,668$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.4146257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked KT Rolster36c1,600$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5691827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe751…9af6backed KT Rolster13c1,595$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21025945.2%117 W · 142 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed KT Rolster11c1,559$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3816646.4%77 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KT Rolster5c1,559$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.912,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed KT Rolster40c1,556$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.543739.8%174 W · 263 L-23.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…4a37backed Gen.G52c1,549$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.9115349%75 W · 78 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Gen.G65c1,547$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.3970857.1%404 W · 304 L+41.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked KT Rolster1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.754202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked KT Rolster4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed KT Rolster9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.984050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed KT Rolster15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22524035.4%85 W · 155 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed KT Rolster1c1,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b3…3989backed KT Rolster33c1,488$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.6510751.4%55 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed KT Rolster55c1,454$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.028245.1%37 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed KT Rolster19c1,428$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7522146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed KT Rolster45c1,403$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.227838.5%30 W · 48 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed KT Rolster4c1,401$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0421352.6%112 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked KT Rolster17c1,390$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2365825.9%15 W · 43 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked KT Rolster38c1,384$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2937343.4%162 W · 211 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.