Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f9a19bcbfb14c1d8182ac5d2123c2644cd36fdd70fb2476ea76094fb82f57e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d9b…a8e0backed No | 1c | 2,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 523.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 11c | 503.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.69 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 11c | 407.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 338.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 13c | 336.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 286.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…af1ebacked Yes | 52c | 248.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 78c | 223.35$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 218.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 205.88$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 54c | 172.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 15c | 133.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…523ebacked No | 57c | 127.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 24c | 104.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 30c | 95.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 93.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 81.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…35a8backed No | 68c | 69.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 61.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 45c | 55.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 54.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 63c | 48.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 24c | 42.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 37.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 36.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 29.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 28.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…fbd3backed No | 76c | 17.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 72c | 14.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.