Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda69c5e49cf024d8ceb43d61527d21ef686e4510882bba257121a35bf31ab91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6af…f9cdbacked Under | 48c | 835.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 47c | 464.01$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 2,497 | 39.9%996 W · 1,501 L | -75.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 33c | 447.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Over | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…62c8backed Over | 50c | 399.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Over | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 102 | 31.4%32 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Under | 47c | 269.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 46c | 190.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed Over | 55c | 182.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Under | 46c | 163.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 216 | 47.2%102 W · 114 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 54c | 100.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8dbebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Under | 50c | 84.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 869 | 43.2%375 W · 494 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…b017backed Under | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 77.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,300 | 49.2%639 W · 661 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…6d30backed Over | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Over | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Under | 47c | 27.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…7535backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 341 | 37.8%129 W · 212 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 60c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?G2 Esports won
- First Blood in Game 2?Hanwha Life Esports won
- First Blood in Game 3?Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 1 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.