TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof BetBoom Team, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,037,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,066,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,037,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea3e…8237backed BetBoom Team0c305,803$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked BetBoom Team19c57,581$10,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,940.4314050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BetBoom Team20c35,000$6,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,849.9923145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team22c30,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9575758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team14c28,567$3,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,954.711,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Vitality78c23,444$18,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,157.6225751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed Vitality80c22,725$18,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.94654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed BetBoom Team12c20,866$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.7122843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked BetBoom Team18c20,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…2874backed BetBoom Team22c19,731$4,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,332.144843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed BetBoom Team21c16,086$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.976245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x594d…059dbacked BetBoom Team19c15,266$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.512152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d29…0206backed BetBoom Team12c15,000$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.051833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BetBoom Team17c14,843$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.6164852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed BetBoom Team14c13,875$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.7442142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed BetBoom Team18c11,535$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.5311439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba1…1733backed BetBoom Team0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked BetBoom Team1c9,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108339.1%3 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BetBoom Team16c8,600$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.571,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed BetBoom Team6c8,529$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2430340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x132f…453bbacked BetBoom Team23c8,464$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.03933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BetBoom Team16c8,220$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.561,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Vitality79c6,610$5,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.0323354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BetBoom Team10c6,527$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.11,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team19c6,225$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.192,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked BetBoom Team19c6,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BetBoom Team19c5,879$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.535,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team18c5,419$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.295,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Vitality80c5,003$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.3948350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed BetBoom Team17c3,750$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.5555845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1d…6d93backed BetBoom Team20c3,549$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.161250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BetBoom Team18c3,250$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5851,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked BetBoom Team12c3,144$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.822429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BetBoom Team20c3,087$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.652,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked BetBoom Team10c3,050$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-59.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team18c3,004$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.6896740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BetBoom Team19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BetBoom Team18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54017045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf05…5efcbacked BetBoom Team19c2,990$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.13013.3%4 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality79c2,883$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5931,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Vitality79c2,762$2,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.049553.7%51 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Vitality78c2,753$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.6911151.4%57 W · 54 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team14c2,743$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4532732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433b…f372backed BetBoom Team11c2,589$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed BetBoom Team1c2,566$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6614042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed BetBoom Team9c2,509$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9521135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed BetBoom Team10c2,500$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26185351.7%441 W · 412 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked BetBoom Team20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed BetBoom Team20c2,250$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc927…a3c2backed BetBoom Team15c2,225$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.43234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BetBoom Team8c2,198$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.661,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7888…5ec9backed BetBoom Team20c2,093$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.621266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked BetBoom Team19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3a…9683backed Vitality78c1,955$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.12040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed BetBoom Team19c1,830$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.856941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked BetBoom Team19c1,800$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3421637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed BetBoom Team20c1,695$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.4336554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9cd…3499backed Vitality79c1,645$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.4211157.7%64 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team18c1,634$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.11,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…ef1dbacked Vitality77c1,621$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.725438.9%21 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked BetBoom Team6c1,581$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025345.8%116 W · 137 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…59a1backed BetBoom Team19c1,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019238%73 W · 119 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed BetBoom Team7c1,542$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.320745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74b1…2afdbacked BetBoom Team12c1,524$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+231%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed BetBoom Team10c1,508$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5615133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BetBoom Team18c1,501$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed BetBoom Team18c1,501$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1812759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed BetBoom Team18c1,501$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1819659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed BetBoom Team20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009551.6%49 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked BetBoom Team8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BetBoom Team20c1,400$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.681,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked BetBoom Team7c1,361$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.378032.5%26 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed BetBoom Team20c1,300$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26027056.3%152 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed BetBoom Team8c1,294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792b…fb71backed BetBoom Team12c1,282$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502552%13 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c82…9728backed Vitality79c1,200$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25221848.6%106 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed BetBoom Team4c1,185$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.794650%23 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d1…cf6fbacked Vitality80c1,169$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.742060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fc…e2b0backed BetBoom Team9c1,150$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BetBoom Team20c1,111$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.221,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed BetBoom Team3c1,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3238312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked BetBoom Team2c1,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-80.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b15…7cacbacked BetBoom Team8c1,093$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924337.2%16 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked BetBoom Team19c1,067$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.811931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebd…6dc0backed Vitality80c1,025$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20513767.9%93 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked BetBoom Team23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23022751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed BetBoom Team9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.946340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11088746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c66…01d0backed BetBoom Team22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BetBoom Team1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed BetBoom Team20c999.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019652.6%103 W · 93 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cf…10fdbacked BetBoom Team18c999.96$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked BetBoom Team16c998.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.833557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BetBoom Team16c996.82$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed BetBoom Team19c897.05$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1950051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…879dbacked Vitality80c877.08$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.423666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e42…5856backed BetBoom Team18c864.71$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1558929.2%26 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed BetBoom Team3c834.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.342941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked BetBoom Team18c827.78$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910938.5%42 W · 67 L-0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.