TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof BetBoom Team, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$567,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team12c21,324$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.721,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked BetBoom Team6c20,940$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.7222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Vitality70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00021655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Vitality70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.9725655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed BetBoom Team29c17,686$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.0730340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team24c12,669$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.4637646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba1…1733backed BetBoom Team0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed BetBoom Team30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00017737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Vitality76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40023354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BetBoom Team22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality70c9,192$6,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.6764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BetBoom Team1c8,900$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8913043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked BetBoom Team24c6,760$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63110635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked BetBoom Team29c5,930$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.681,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed BetBoom Team12c5,185$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8221135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed Vitality73c5,121$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.6221351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed BetBoom Team29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4504748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9923243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BetBoom Team29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked BetBoom Team30c4,296$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.429046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed BetBoom Team26c4,280$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.9619543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team30c4,247$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.3297040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d8…1ce9backed Vitality72c4,128$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.96752.2%35 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked BetBoom Team23c3,985$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.9921251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Vitality78c3,624$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.5819659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Vitality71c3,521$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.1333359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Vitality71c3,500$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01536453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality71c3,496$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.281,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed BetBoom Team30c3,244$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.1317240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team11c3,175$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.224,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BetBoom Team30c3,070$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.9947147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team19c3,070$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.455,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BetBoom Team29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality69c2,879$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.631,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Vitality78c2,805$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0632542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Vitality70c2,644$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7435054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed BetBoom Team30c2,596$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.8221854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BetBoom Team9c2,497$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7155738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed BetBoom Team29c2,360$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.3828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…b615backed BetBoom Team22c2,273$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked BetBoom Team24c2,115$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.1262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed BetBoom Team29c2,050$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59018837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked BetBoom Team30c2,049$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.5810644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BetBoom Team30c2,023$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.741,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Vitality71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed BetBoom Team21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42048437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BetBoom Team5c1,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9632832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Vitality78c1,955$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0525355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed Vitality69c1,916$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.9210452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team23c1,859$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.175,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ab…f441backed BetBoom Team6c1,827$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.62828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed BetBoom Team11c1,800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1930153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed Vitality76c1,733$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.575052%26 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Vitality70c1,614$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.36940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed BetBoom Team20c1,598$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.28226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team21c1,587$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.872,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed BetBoom Team19c1,520$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5211949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked Vitality80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3006266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1e0…70f8backed Vitality72c1,426$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.863390.9%30 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Vitality71c1,409$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.1215970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Vitality71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4519548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Vitality77c1,395$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8112759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked BetBoom Team31c1,367$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.5548948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Vitality78c1,274$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.0917967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Vitality71c1,254$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.5227452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Vitality70c1,250$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37537557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Vitality71c1,241$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.8342651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed BetBoom Team11c1,235$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.339826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa09…b681backed BetBoom Team30c1,218$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked BetBoom Team19c1,091$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.791,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Vitality78c1,083$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.241,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Vitality76c1,048$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.568361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed BetBoom Team17c1,047$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1787548%36 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked BetBoom Team26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2609160.4%55 W · 36 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea3e…8237backed BetBoom Team2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked BetBoom Team32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked BetBoom Team21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2107536%27 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BetBoom Team1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d5…180abacked BetBoom Team22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Vitality69c999.76$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.865,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team20c999.72$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.176,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked BetBoom Team27c983.48$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.5422447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed BetBoom Team23c979.99$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.516633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed BetBoom Team14c955$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2521143.1%91 W · 120 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BetBoom Team3c943.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6269624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Vitality71c919.15$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.5522253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked BetBoom Team35c917.07$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32011871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Vitality71c906.89$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26319443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed BetBoom Team16c902.12$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.314042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9499…d5bbbacked BetBoom Team30c890.57$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.171637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed BetBoom Team21c870.43$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.797540%30 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BetBoom Team9c842.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.973,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed BetBoom Team30c833.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed BetBoom Team30c825.35$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6131345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked BetBoom Team16c824.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.211,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed BetBoom Team20c820$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1649748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed BetBoom Team18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14421246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4579…dfdfbacked BetBoom Team15c781.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team23c770.97$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3232732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9192backed BetBoom Team26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.