La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857b090923f209f7e346e13ba121c2ba42a6d3bd4a171f1bc15d7dfe3cc5f53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valencia CFof Real Sociedad de Fútbol, Valencia CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valencia CF | 67c | 18,928$12,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,238.09 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 35c | 14,289$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.25 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 34c | 2,077$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.12 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…2f27backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 19c | 1,780$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.12 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 24c | 1,757$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.07 | 564 | 39.2%221 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Valencia CF | 76c | 1,604$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.55 | 1,418 | 45.6%646 W · 772 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 21c | 1,200$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Valencia CF | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 24c | 1,133$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 21c | 958.31$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 16c | 620.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Valencia CF | 78c | 522$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 40c | 453.35$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 22c | 208.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Valencia CF | 71c | 180.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Valencia CF | 71c | 103.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 17c | 96.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 393 | 38.9%153 W · 240 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…2542backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 44c | 88.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 32c | 86.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Valencia CF | 80c | 80.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…6761backed Valencia CF | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Valencia CF | 78c | 65.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Valencia CF | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Valencia CF | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 31c | 61.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Valencia CF | 68c | 61.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Valencia CF | 79c | 51.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Valencia CF | 67c | 47.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Valencia CF | 69c | 44.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Valencia CF | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Valencia CF | 69c | 35.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Valencia CF | 69c | 31.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Valencia CF | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…56f6backed Valencia CF | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Valencia CF | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 113 | 66.4%75 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.