La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12db9b3528c9ad53f1fab8b6b64f42c90b0b281564eb48683575eac1c169f3cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 49c | 5,064$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.03 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 2,655$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.78 | 141 | 46.8%66 W · 75 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,621$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.05 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4939…9adebacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 29c | 1,558$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 43c | 1,441$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.98 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 1,410$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 1,113$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.93 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 1,060$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.12 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 52c | 915$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.8 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf439…bf9cbacked Under | 52c | 820$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.4 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 18c | 699.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 668.22$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.65 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 648.84$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.32 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 539.74$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Over | 51c | 489.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.69 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 391.07$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 644 | 57%367 W · 277 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 51c | 310.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 50c | 294.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 128 | 63.3%81 W · 47 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 221.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 50c | 199.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 77c | 107.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 48c | 107.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 28c | 101.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked Under | 29c | 82.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 52c | 79.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Over | 51c | 46.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 40.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…00cbbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 50c | 33.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 52c | 22.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…6253backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…f55dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 79c | 15.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.