La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60aecb198594c1efe48bb47e84c626cbe989d30f50b9131a88ef6163fa39f816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 45c | 4,053$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.29 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,493$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.85 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 42c | 1,800$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +9.8wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 21c | 1,210$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 1,176$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.55 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…f812backed Over | 75c | 666.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.93 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 549.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.15 | 1,186 | 51.7%613 W · 573 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 71c | 345.16$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.07 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 218.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 182.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 1,017 | 33.4%340 W · 677 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 30c | 143.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 73c | 137.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 68.4%93 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 29c | 131.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 76.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 54c | 74.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…efffbacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 459 | 49.7%228 W · 231 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 578 | 39.3%227 W · 351 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 55c | 39.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 32c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 76c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 72c | 26.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 700 | 50.6%354 W · 346 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 412 | 39.1%161 W · 251 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 67c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 225 | 57.3%129 W · 96 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.