La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb427f1d53ce457196e2e1f7c76fbd27f4e128e4585d62d9a8990438fc74109a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 51c | 2,552$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.3 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 50c | 2,301$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.72 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 1,805$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.41 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…f812backed Over | 38c | 1,460$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.18 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,235$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.07 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 623.58$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 420.78$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.73 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 16c | 209.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.51 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 199.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 123.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 57.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | -15.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 58c | 52.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 44.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Under | 52c | 27.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 20.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…dfb5backed Over | 59c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.