Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a059f0bcd1884a9526699baefba38fbf5de8d69b8fee926370090da0eddece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brentford FCof Manchester United FC, Brentford FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Manchester United FC | 22c | 826.58$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 493.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Manchester United FC | 12c | 357.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 262.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC | 11c | 245.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…412ebacked Manchester United FC | 22c | 179.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 159.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…cc3bbacked Manchester United FC | 13c | 145.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8c41backed Brentford FC | 80c | 113.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Brentford FC | 77c | 110.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -17.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked Manchester United FC | 21c | 97.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Brentford FC | 63c | 95.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Manchester United FC | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +12.0wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Brentford FC | 80c | 85.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Brentford FC | 79c | 77.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Manchester United FC | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Brentford FC | 69c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Brentford FC | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Brentford FC | 57c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.