TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under12c16,589$1,972 inLost-$1,972.286,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under16c8,318$1,347 inLost-$1,347.162,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under9c3,205$295 inLost-$295.314,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under16c3,125$500 inLost-$50085048.4%411 W · 439 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under17c2,636$448 inLost-$448.075552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under17c2,359$401 inLost-$400.981,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$15156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$15565.4%3 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+150.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$151225%3 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+215.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under10c1,029$103 inLost-$102.8524052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c1,000$10 inLost-$10933.2%3 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Under17c999.95$170 inLost-$169.997636.8%28 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under9c832.29$76 inLost-$76.191,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1782…892fbacked Under9c754.91$68 inLost-$67.771250%6 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+169.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under16c702.3$112 inLost-$112.371,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under16c692.49$111 inLost-$110.81,16357.4%667 W · 496 L+40.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc454…8c31backed Under18c647.37$117 inLost-$116.532218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under16c514.32$82 inLost-$82.2980953.6%434 W · 375 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under10c499.72$48 inLost-$48.367143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under11c454.68$52 inLost-$52.1210330.1%31 W · 72 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under10c364.21$36 inLost-$36.4229250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under17c349.98$58 inLost-$58.533551.3%172 W · 163 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under17c318.35$53 inLost-$52.9559247.6%282 W · 310 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under13c272.52$36 inLost-$35.5474644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under16c266.32$44 inLost-$43.8169851.1%357 W · 341 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Under8c222.62$19 inLost-$18.911858.5%69 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under14c180$25 inLost-$25.251847.3%245 W · 273 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under15c170.72$25 inLost-$25.133336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under10c155.14$16 inLost-$15.5139555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under7c145$10 inLost-$10.1548950.1%245 W · 244 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under11c110.05$12 inLost-$11.8528456.7%161 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca6…08ffbacked Under19c103.19$20 inLost-$19.611850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+36.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under13c84.04$11 inLost-$10.9824557.6%141 W · 104 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Under14c76.14$11 inLost-$10.663540%14 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x840d…3708backed Under18c64.55$12 inLost-$11.623327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.